workPackage WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 WP4 - Quantitative Model Integration and Scenario Development

WP4 will be the platform for the integration of the various quantified dynamic systems models generated in WP2 and quantified in WP3 and WP5 in order to generate an ES & Poverty Delta model. The framework will be developed and tested using dynamics systems models that can be combined and integrated to answer specific policy questions raised by the relevant stakeholders in WP1. Key to this process will be sensitivity analysis determining which critical components or pathways through the dynamic models are called upon to provide outputs for specific policy questions. In this way it will be possible to provide information on the optimal points of policy intervention for use in WP6. Where specific questions pertain to future states this process will include the development of appropriate scenarios based upon the knowledge gained from the development of the dynamic systems models. These will address the specific questions developed by policy makers in WP1 as well as allow simulations of plausible futures for deeper policy analysis in WP6. The scenario development will need to address multi-scalar and multi-agency involvement. WP4 will develop scenarios that are consistent across scales. This will facilitate the analysis of some cross-scale processes while avoiding marginalization of minority issues and stakeholders [26]. Participation by stakeholders in the scenario development will be key to the trust, uptake and use of the scenarios. To ensure this, an iterative procedure will be adopted to incorporate, at the first stage, a “baseline” scenario to establish the present-day system explored in the first workshop in WP1 and the findings of WP2, WP3 and WP5.

The method will be supported by analysis of historical data building on WP3 and WP5 to provide a reality check on the scenario trends in both a social and an environmental context and in doing so assist in the projection of thresholds and feedbacks. As such this approach will bridge the link between science and policy-driven solutions for adaptation to environmental and socio-economic changes.

Following methodologies used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the MEA, a two-axis method will be adopted which is particularly suited for the long-term planning explored in WP6 [28]. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios being developed for the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report [32], should be available to the project, and will contribute to scenario development.

WT 4.1 Baseline future scenario development will produce a rapid assessment of plausible future scenarios of ES provision and poverty. These preliminary outputs provide a basis for discussion at the second stakeholder workshop. Scenarios will be developed from existing information identified in the first stakeholder workshop, as well as existing literature to develop consistent detailed qualitative and quantitative scenarios to i) provide output relevant to initial policy questions ii) Compare with any national and international existing scenarios iii) Validate the choice of scenarios with stakeholders

WT 4.2 Integrated model development by combination of the component systems dynamic models from WP3 and WP5 into an integrated modelling system. The resulting model will be designed to produce scenario outputs in response to the specific questions posed in WP1. This will include identification of i) data requirements for multi-scale modelling ii) review of semi-quantitative scenario development tools, iii) stakeholder workshop development iv) system assessment and v) quantification of present-day scenario narratives

WT 4.3 Preliminary scenario development. Based upon the integrated model development specific scenarios will be developed. These scenario outputs will be specifically focused upon informing responses to policy issues raised in WP1

WT4.4 Multi-scalar linking of scenarios will ensure the consistency of scenarios across the multiple spatial scales. The work task will distil the findings of WP1 and WP2 to provide a picture of the GBM Basin as a whole.