workPackage WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 WP5 - Physical and Ecological Model Development

WP5 will create regional models of socio-ecological states and flows that emphasize the complex interactions between physical and ecological change and local communities, poverty and ES provision. This will include historic analysis of drivers of environmental change and impacts on ES. This will be combined with the model requirements to design a field measurement strategy within WP5 that best serves model development and validation. The WP5 models will quantify key processes defined in WP2, and hence provide key inputs for integration and scenario development in WP4. This will include simulating relevant aspects of system behaviour in the past and future, and understanding sensitivity and thresholds to key input parameters. The method will be supported by warehousing of relevant data sets including historical data

WT 5.1 Identification of Core Model inputs. These inputs are fundamental to the development of the model framework and their selection is based upon significant ES provision such as fisheries, agricultural production, water provision and vulnerability to natural hazards (flooding) for livelihoods, poverty and food security. Models will be supported by primary data collection, where appropriate and required. Types of models include i) physical modelling ii) ecological modelling iii) Fisheries modelling iv) Agricultural modelling v) Coastal forest/mangrove modelling and vi) land cover modelling.

WT 5.2. Data collection and warehousing will be conducted once the ensemble of models is established there will be a requirement to coordinate the respective models’ data requirements through both publicly and commercially available data sets, as well as through the auspices of project partners, associated experts and stakeholders

WT 5.3 Identification of Historical Data. The development of effective scenarios in WP4 will be informed by the collection and utilisation of relevant historical data sets which provide a trend or proxies for a trend in the significant quantitative and quantified relationships identified in WP2, WP3 and WP5.  This approach provides a context for the inclusion of feedback and thresholds which over a decadal time frame

WT 5.4. Model Quantification, Verification, Calibration & Historical analysis. Once the appropriate ensemble of models has been selected and will be organised into a coherent work flow which optimises the efficiency, data demands and inter-linkage between model outputs and inputs. Once established the model framework will be calibrated and verified utilising independent data sets which allow a comparison between current ES and poverty levels and now-casting through the model (eg FAO data, HDI, WHO, fish stock provision, crop yields). In addition the historical trend data will provide a form of outline validation with retrospective analysis of model outcomes based on historical data. WT5.4. Outputs form the physical modelling will be utilised to quantify the conceptual dynamic systems model framework produced in WP2 and integrated in WP4.